Andrew Mulvey v Martin Miller (Tue 12 Oct 2010)
Match won by Andrew Mulvey. Result: 15-8,17-15,17-15.
Starting level for
Andrew Mulvey:
746, level confidence: 24%.
Starting level for
Martin Miller:
765, level confidence: 65%.
Martin Miller to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Andrew Mulvey.
Andrew Mulvey won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Mulvey played
38% better than Martin Miller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Mulvey actually played at a level of
886 and Martin Miller at a level of
644. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Mulvey changes to +19% and Martin Miller changes to -6.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Mulvey becomes +10.5% and for Martin Miller becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Andrew Mulvey is +7.9% and for Martin Miller is -3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Mulvey: 49%, Martin Miller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Mulvey: 41%, Martin Miller: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andrew Mulvey:
803, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Martin Miller:
739, level confidence: 68%.