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Charles Yerrell v Richard Carr (Tue 17 Jul 2012)

Match won by Charles Yerrell. Result: 10-15,15-12,15-12,15-10.

Starting level for Charles Yerrell: 3,177, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Richard Carr: 2,570, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Charles Yerrell to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Richard Carr.

Charles Yerrell won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charles Yerrell played 21% better than Richard Carr in this match.

In this case, Charles Yerrell played at level 3,117 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Charles Yerrell would normally have been playing at level 3,131 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Carr played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell changes to 0% and Richard Carr changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell becomes 0% and for Richard Carr becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Charles Yerrell is 0% and for Richard Carr is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charles Yerrell: 81%, Richard Carr: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charles Yerrell: 80%, Richard Carr: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charles Yerrell: 3,172, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Richard Carr: 2,570, level confidence: 86%.