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James Armstrong v Phil Jenkins (Tue 12 Oct 2010)

Match won by James Armstrong. Result: 15-12,9-15,14-16,15-12,15-13.

Starting level for James Armstrong: 1,385, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Phil Jenkins: 1,805, level confidence: 61%.
Phil Jenkins to win as he is currently playing 30% better than James Armstrong.

James Armstrong won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Armstrong played 8% better than Phil Jenkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Armstrong actually played at a level of 1,639 and Phil Jenkins at a level of 1,525. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Armstrong changes to +16% and Phil Jenkins changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Armstrong becomes +8% and for Phil Jenkins becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Armstrong is +6% and for Phil Jenkins is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Armstrong: 79%, Phil Jenkins: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Armstrong: 67%, Phil Jenkins: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Armstrong: 1,466, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Phil Jenkins: 1,710, level confidence: 66%.