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Gus Lyseight v Steve Leverington (Tue 12 Oct 2010)

Match won by Gus Lyseight. Result: 15-12,11-15,15-17,15-13,15-9.

Starting level for Gus Lyseight: 1,705, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Steve Leverington: 1,351, level confidence: 68%.
Gus Lyseight to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Steve Leverington.

Gus Lyseight won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gus Lyseight played 9% better than Steve Leverington in this match.

As Gus Lyseight has played below his allowed range at 1,556, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Gus Lyseight would normally have been playing at level 1,675 (based on typical behaviour), Steve Leverington played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gus Lyseight changes to -4.7% and Steve Leverington changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gus Lyseight becomes -3.1% and for Steve Leverington becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Gus Lyseight is -2.3% and for Steve Leverington is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gus Lyseight: 66%, Steve Leverington: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gus Lyseight: 61%, Steve Leverington: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gus Lyseight: 1,664, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Steve Leverington: 1,379, level confidence: 77%.