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Tim Oram v Richard Batchelor (Tue 17 Jul 2012)

Match won by Tim Oram. Result: 13-15,15-10,15-11,15-3.

Starting level for Tim Oram: 1,297, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Richard Batchelor: 1,310, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Richard Batchelor to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Tim Oram.

Tim Oram won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 49% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Oram played 33% better than Richard Batchelor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Oram actually played at a level of 1,502 and Richard Batchelor at a level of 1,131. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Oram changes to +16% and Richard Batchelor changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Oram becomes +8.2% and for Richard Batchelor becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Tim Oram is +5.3% and for Richard Batchelor is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Oram: 76%, Richard Batchelor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Oram: 66%, Richard Batchelor: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Oram: 1,364, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Richard Batchelor: 1,255, level confidence: 74%.