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Paul Drakes v Jan Brynjolffssen (Tue 17 Jul 2012)

Match won by Jan Brynjolffssen. Result: 7-15,6-15,9-15.

Starting level for Paul Drakes: 861, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,557, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jan Brynjolffssen to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Paul Drakes.

Jan Brynjolffssen won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Brynjolffssen played 105% better than Paul Drakes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Brynjolffssen actually played at a level of 1,656 and Paul Drakes at a level of 810. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen changes to +4.2% and Paul Drakes changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen becomes +3% and for Paul Drakes becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen is +1.9% and for Paul Drakes is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Brynjolffssen: 88%, Paul Drakes: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Brynjolffssen: 83%, Paul Drakes: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Drakes: 839, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,585, level confidence: 83%.