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Stephen Lloyd v Ian Taylor (Tue 12 Oct 2010)

Match won by Stephen Lloyd. Result: 15-5,15-8,15-12.

Starting level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,427, level confidence: 18%.
Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,118, level confidence: 53%.
Stephen Lloyd to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Ian Taylor.

Stephen Lloyd won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Lloyd played 80% better than Ian Taylor in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Stephen Lloyd was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,702 and 2,427 without affecting his level.

In this case, Stephen Lloyd played at level 2,042 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Stephen Lloyd would normally have been playing at level 2,073 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd changes to 0% and Ian Taylor changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd becomes 0% and for Ian Taylor becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd is 0% and for Ian Taylor is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Lloyd: 43%, Ian Taylor: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Lloyd: 39%, Ian Taylor: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,423, level confidence: 39%.
Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,119, level confidence: 66%.