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Bob Woollard v David Lloyd (Tue 12 Oct 2010)

Match won by David Lloyd. Result: 8-15,13-15,12-15.

Starting level for Bob Woollard: 1,013, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for David Lloyd: 983, level confidence: 59%.
Bob Woollard to win as he is currently playing 3% better than David Lloyd.

David Lloyd won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Lloyd played 43% better than Bob Woollard in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Lloyd actually played at a level of 1,191 and Bob Woollard at a level of 836. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Lloyd changes to +21% and Bob Woollard changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Lloyd becomes +11.6% and for Bob Woollard becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for David Lloyd is +8.7% and for Bob Woollard is -8.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Lloyd: 77%, Bob Woollard: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Lloyd: 63%, Bob Woollard: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bob Woollard: 933, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for David Lloyd: 1,067, level confidence: 63%.