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Kath Kemp v Lee Sanders (Tue 12 Oct 2010)

Match won by Kath Kemp. Result: 15-11,15-3,15-6.

Starting level for Kath Kemp: 996, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for Lee Sanders: 569, level confidence: 44%.
Kath Kemp to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Lee Sanders.

Kath Kemp won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kath Kemp played 125% better than Lee Sanders in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kath Kemp actually played at a level of 1,129 and Lee Sanders at a level of 502. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kath Kemp changes to +10% and Lee Sanders changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kath Kemp becomes +6.4% and for Lee Sanders becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Kath Kemp is +4.8% and for Lee Sanders is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kath Kemp: 51%, Lee Sanders: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kath Kemp: 45%, Lee Sanders: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kath Kemp: 1,042, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Lee Sanders: 550, level confidence: 58%.