Roger Greenfield v John Chesters (Wed 18 Jul 2012)
Match won by John Chesters. Result: 15-10,14-16,11-15,4-15.
Starting level for
Roger Greenfield:
882, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for
John Chesters:
1,070, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
John Chesters to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Roger Greenfield.
John Chesters won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Chesters played
26% better than Roger Greenfield in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Chesters actually played at a level of
1,089 and Roger Greenfield at a level of
866. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Chesters changes to 0% and Roger Greenfield changes to -1.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Chesters becomes +0.2% and for Roger Greenfield becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for John Chesters is 0% and for Roger Greenfield is -1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Chesters: 89%, Roger Greenfield: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Chesters: 88%, Roger Greenfield: 31%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Roger Greenfield:
871, level confidence: 31%.
Final level for John Chesters:
1,070, level confidence: 88%.