Anton Snell v Mark Slaney (Tue 24 Jul 2012)
Match won by Anton Snell. Result: 8-15,15-13,20-18,15-4.
Starting level for
Anton Snell:
935, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Mark Slaney:
987, level confidence: 48%.
Mark Slaney to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Anton Snell.
Anton Snell won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anton Snell played
22% better than Mark Slaney in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anton Snell actually played at a level of
1,061 and Mark Slaney at a level of
870. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anton Snell changes to +9% and Mark Slaney changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anton Snell becomes +6% and for Mark Slaney becomes -8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Anton Snell is +3.9% and for Mark Slaney is -5.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anton Snell: 83%, Mark Slaney: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anton Snell: 73%, Mark Slaney: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Anton Snell:
970, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mark Slaney:
938, level confidence: 61%.