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Anthony Clifford v Alan Tierney (Wed 25 Jul 2012)

Match won by Alan Tierney. Result: 13-15,14-16,13-15.

Starting level for Anthony Clifford: 1,217, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Tierney: 1,313, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Alan Tierney to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Anthony Clifford.

Alan Tierney won all of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Tierney played 28% better than Anthony Clifford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Tierney actually played at a level of 1,431 and Anthony Clifford at a level of 1,116. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Tierney changes to +8.7% and Anthony Clifford changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Tierney becomes +5.2% and for Anthony Clifford becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Alan Tierney is +3.4% and for Anthony Clifford is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Tierney: 87%, Anthony Clifford: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Tierney: 80%, Anthony Clifford: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Clifford: 1,175, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Alan Tierney: 1,355, level confidence: 80%.