Justin Turnpenny v Chris Dormon (Thu 14 Oct 2010)
Match won by Chris Dormon. Result: 15-12,11-15,9-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Justin Turnpenny:
1,259, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Chris Dormon:
1,425, level confidence: 22%.
Chris Dormon to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Justin Turnpenny.
Chris Dormon won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Dormon played
26% better than Justin Turnpenny in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Dormon actually played at a level of
1,501 and Justin Turnpenny at a level of
1,195. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Dormon changes to +5% and Justin Turnpenny changes to -1.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Dormon becomes +3.5% and for Justin Turnpenny becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Chris Dormon is +2.6% and for Justin Turnpenny is -1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Dormon: 47%, Justin Turnpenny: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Dormon: 44%, Justin Turnpenny: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Justin Turnpenny:
1,244, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Dormon:
1,460, level confidence: 44%.