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Gordon Kerr v Dave Rawlings (Tue 31 Jul 2012)

Match won by Gordon Kerr. Result: 15-10,15-12,5-15,15-11.

Starting level for Gordon Kerr: 1,767, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Dave Rawlings: 1,687, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Gordon Kerr to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Dave Rawlings.

Gordon Kerr won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gordon Kerr played 18% better than Dave Rawlings in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gordon Kerr actually played at a level of 1,876 and Dave Rawlings at a level of 1,589. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gordon Kerr changes to +6.1% and Dave Rawlings changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gordon Kerr becomes +3.6% and for Dave Rawlings becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Gordon Kerr is +2.3% and for Dave Rawlings is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gordon Kerr: 72%, Dave Rawlings: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gordon Kerr: 68%, Dave Rawlings: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gordon Kerr: 1,806, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Dave Rawlings: 1,655, level confidence: 87%.