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Ian Lennox v Tony Revell (Tue 31 Jul 2012)

Match won by Ian Lennox. Result: 14-16,15-10,15-13,15-13.

Starting level for Ian Lennox: 780, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tony Revell: 883, level confidence: 68%.
Tony Revell to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Ian Lennox.

Ian Lennox won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Lennox played 21% better than Tony Revell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Lennox actually played at a level of 914 and Tony Revell at a level of 754. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Lennox changes to +14% and Tony Revell changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Lennox becomes +8.2% and for Tony Revell becomes -9.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Ian Lennox is +5.3% and for Tony Revell is -5.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tony Revell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Lennox: 89%, Tony Revell: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Lennox: 76%, Tony Revell: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Lennox: 820, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tony Revell: 840, level confidence: 70%.