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Neil Newbery v Gus Lyseight (Tue 19 Oct 2010)

Match won by Neil Newbery. Result: 15-12,2-15,12-15,21-19,15-9.

Starting level for Neil Newbery: 1,867, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Gus Lyseight: 1,664, level confidence: 59%.
Neil Newbery to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Gus Lyseight.

Neil Newbery won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Newbery played 6% better than Gus Lyseight in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Newbery actually played at a level of 1,812 and Gus Lyseight at a level of 1,714. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Newbery changes to -2.9% and Gus Lyseight changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Newbery becomes -2.2% and for Gus Lyseight becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Neil Newbery is -1.7% and for Gus Lyseight is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Newbery: 68%, Gus Lyseight: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Newbery: 66%, Gus Lyseight: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Newbery: 1,834, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Gus Lyseight: 1,684, level confidence: 75%.