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Tim Bloomer v Dave Cooper (Tue 31 Jul 2012)

Match won by Tim Bloomer. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-7.

Starting level for Tim Bloomer: 2,243, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Cooper: 1,585, level confidence: 56%.
Tim Bloomer to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Dave Cooper.

Tim Bloomer won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Bloomer played 125% better than Dave Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Bloomer actually played at a level of 2,828 and Dave Cooper at a level of 1,257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer changes to +17% and Dave Cooper changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer becomes +7.1% and for Dave Cooper becomes -9.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Tim Bloomer is +4.6% and for Dave Cooper is -6.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Bloomer: 85%, Dave Cooper: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Bloomer: 67%, Dave Cooper: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Bloomer: 2,343, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Dave Cooper: 1,490, level confidence: 59%.