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Paul Green v James Nield (Tue 19 Oct 2010)

Match won by James Nield. Result: 15-11,11-15,7-15,8-15.

Starting level for Paul Green: 1,806, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Nield: 2,060, level confidence: 67%.
James Nield to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Paul Green.

James Nield won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Nield played 29% better than Paul Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Nield actually played at a level of 2,189 and Paul Green at a level of 1,699. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Nield changes to +5.9% and Paul Green changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Nield becomes +3.3% and for Paul Green becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Nield is +2.5% and for Paul Green is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Nield: 82%, Paul Green: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Nield: 77%, Paul Green: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Green: 1,759, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for James Nield: 2,109, level confidence: 77%.