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Kevin Thorpe v Chris Marshall (Wed 01 Aug 2012)

Match won by Kevin Thorpe. Result: 15-9,15-3,15-6.

Starting level for Kevin Thorpe: 1,314, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Chris Marshall: 1,608, level confidence: 69%.
Chris Marshall to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Kevin Thorpe.

Kevin Thorpe won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Thorpe played 150% better than Chris Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kevin Thorpe actually played at a level of 2,298 and Chris Marshall at a level of 919. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 75% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Thorpe changes to +66% and Chris Marshall changes to -6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Thorpe becomes +27% and for Chris Marshall becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Kevin Thorpe is +18% and for Chris Marshall is -2.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Kevin Thorpe is limited to +15% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Thorpe: 32%, Chris Marshall: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Thorpe: 18%, Chris Marshall: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kevin Thorpe: 1,505, level confidence: 18%.
Final level for Chris Marshall: 1,568, level confidence: 48%.