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Paul Crowson v Richard Batchelor (Tue 19 Oct 2010)

Match won by Paul Crowson. Result: 16-18,15-12,15-11,16-14.

Starting level for Paul Crowson: 1,528, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richard Batchelor: 1,093, level confidence: 67%.
Paul Crowson to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Richard Batchelor.

Paul Crowson won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Crowson played 21% better than Richard Batchelor in this match.

As Paul Crowson has played below his allowed range at 1,366, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Crowson would normally have been playing at level 1,475 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Batchelor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Crowson changes to -2.5% and Richard Batchelor changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Crowson becomes -2.1% and for Richard Batchelor becomes +3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Crowson is -1.6% and for Richard Batchelor is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Crowson: 86%, Richard Batchelor: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Crowson: 80%, Richard Batchelor: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Crowson: 1,502, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Richard Batchelor: 1,122, level confidence: 76%.