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Martin Harding v Simon Totten (Tue 07 Aug 2012)

Match won by Martin Harding. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-13.

Starting level for Martin Harding: 2,269, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Totten: 1,980, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Martin Harding to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Simon Totten.

Martin Harding won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Harding played 28% better than Simon Totten in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Harding actually played at a level of 2,402 and Simon Totten at a level of 1,870. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Harding changes to +5.3% and Simon Totten changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Harding becomes +3% and for Simon Totten becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Martin Harding is +2% and for Simon Totten is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Harding: 87%, Simon Totten: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Harding: 82%, Simon Totten: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Harding: 2,310, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Simon Totten: 1,936, level confidence: 81%.