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Paul Carter v Julian Webb (Tue 07 Aug 2012)

Match won by Julian Webb. Result: 7-15,12-15,15-13,7-15.

Starting level for Paul Carter: 1,139, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Julian Webb: 1,156, level confidence: 58%.
Julian Webb to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Carter.

Julian Webb won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Webb played 30% better than Paul Carter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Webb actually played at a level of 1,310 and Paul Carter at a level of 1,005. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Webb changes to +13% and Paul Carter changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Webb becomes +7.5% and for Paul Carter becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Julian Webb is +4.9% and for Paul Carter is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Webb: 76%, Paul Carter: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Webb: 67%, Paul Carter: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Carter: 1,096, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Julian Webb: 1,211, level confidence: 67%.