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Lawrence Foster v Andrew James (Wed 20 Oct 2010)

Match won by Lawrence Foster. Result: 15-8,4-15,15-7,15-11.

Starting level for Lawrence Foster: 1,390, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Andrew James: 1,271, level confidence: 51%.
Lawrence Foster to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Andrew James.

Lawrence Foster won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lawrence Foster played 23% better than Andrew James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lawrence Foster actually played at a level of 1,475 and Andrew James at a level of 1,198. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lawrence Foster changes to +5.9% and Andrew James changes to -5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lawrence Foster becomes +3.9% and for Andrew James becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Lawrence Foster is +2.9% and for Andrew James is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lawrence Foster: 70%, Andrew James: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lawrence Foster: 66%, Andrew James: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lawrence Foster: 1,428, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Andrew James: 1,233, level confidence: 67%.