SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Tim Kipling v Simon Gray (Wed 20 Oct 2010)

Match won by Tim Kipling. Result: 15-10,15-5,15-4.

Starting level for Tim Kipling: 2,874, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Simon Gray: 1,886, level confidence: 57%.
Tim Kipling to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Simon Gray.

Tim Kipling won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Kipling played 137% better than Simon Gray in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Kipling actually played at a level of 3,583 and Simon Gray at a level of 1,513. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Kipling changes to +20% and Simon Gray changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Kipling becomes +7.4% and for Simon Gray becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tim Kipling is +5.5% and for Simon Gray is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Kipling: 70%, Simon Gray: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Kipling: 56%, Simon Gray: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Kipling: 3,029, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Simon Gray: 1,794, level confidence: 61%.