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Martin Berry v Daniel Wolfson (Wed 20 Oct 2010)

Match won by Martin Berry. Result: 15-9,15-11,11-15,15-11.

Starting level for Martin Berry: 2,041, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,927, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Martin Berry to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Daniel Wolfson.

Martin Berry won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Berry played 24% better than Daniel Wolfson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Berry actually played at a level of 2,208 and Daniel Wolfson at a level of 1,781. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Berry changes to +7.9% and Daniel Wolfson changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Berry becomes +4.1% and for Daniel Wolfson becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Martin Berry is +3.1% and for Daniel Wolfson is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Berry: 76%, Daniel Wolfson: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Berry: 70%, Daniel Wolfson: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Berry: 2,101, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,886, level confidence: 85%.