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Roy Milne v Daren Olley (Tue 07 Aug 2012)

Match won by Roy Milne. Result: 15-8,9-15,13-15,15-4,15-6.

Starting level for Roy Milne: 1,004, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daren Olley: 958, level confidence: 57%.
Roy Milne to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Daren Olley.

Roy Milne won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roy Milne played 17% better than Daren Olley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roy Milne actually played at a level of 1,063 and Daren Olley at a level of 905. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roy Milne changes to +4.6% and Daren Olley changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roy Milne becomes +3.8% and for Daren Olley becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Roy Milne is +2.5% and for Daren Olley is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roy Milne: 84%, Daren Olley: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roy Milne: 80%, Daren Olley: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roy Milne: 1,027, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Daren Olley: 930, level confidence: 71%.