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Jim Murphy v Niel Roake (Tue 07 Aug 2012)

Match won by Niel Roake. Result: 10-15,9-15,2-15.

Starting level for Jim Murphy: 739, level confidence: 27%.
Starting level for Niel Roake: 1,487, level confidence: 59%.
Niel Roake to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Jim Murphy.

Niel Roake won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Niel Roake played 114% better than Jim Murphy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Niel Roake actually played at a level of 1,535 and Jim Murphy at a level of 716. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Niel Roake changes to +1% and Jim Murphy changes to -2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Niel Roake becomes +0.9% and for Jim Murphy becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Niel Roake is +0.6% and for Jim Murphy is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Niel Roake: 76%, Jim Murphy: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Niel Roake: 74%, Jim Murphy: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jim Murphy: 727, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Niel Roake: 1,493, level confidence: 74%.