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Tom Simcox v Tom Dupuy (Wed 20 Oct 2010)

Match won by Tom Dupuy. Result: 11-15,11-15,11-15.

Starting level for Tom Simcox: 1,407, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Tom Dupuy: 1,645, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Tom Dupuy to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Tom Simcox.

Tom Dupuy won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Dupuy played 43% better than Tom Simcox in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Dupuy actually played at a level of 1,816 and Tom Simcox at a level of 1,274. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Dupuy changes to +1.3% and Tom Simcox changes to -9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Dupuy becomes +1.1% and for Tom Simcox becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tom Dupuy is +0.8% and for Tom Simcox is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Dupuy: 86%, Tom Simcox: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Dupuy: 78%, Tom Simcox: 29%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Simcox: 1,377, level confidence: 29%.
Final level for Tom Dupuy: 1,656, level confidence: 78%.