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Richard Batchelor v Louis Drakes (Tue 07 Aug 2012)

Match won by Louis Drakes. Result: 12-15,6-15,5-15.

Starting level for Richard Batchelor: 1,159, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Louis Drakes: 2,108, level confidence: 70%.
Louis Drakes to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Richard Batchelor.

Louis Drakes won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Louis Drakes played 96% better than Richard Batchelor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Louis Drakes actually played at a level of 2,186 and Richard Batchelor at a level of 1,117. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Louis Drakes changes to +2.7% and Richard Batchelor changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Louis Drakes becomes +2.1% and for Richard Batchelor becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Louis Drakes is +1.3% and for Richard Batchelor is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Louis Drakes: 83%, Richard Batchelor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Louis Drakes: 80%, Richard Batchelor: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Batchelor: 1,140, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Louis Drakes: 2,133, level confidence: 80%.