Chris Wren v Akin Olunloyo (Wed 20 Oct 2010)
Match won by Akin Olunloyo. Result: 9-15,17-15,13-15,10-15.
Starting level for
Chris Wren:
956, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for
Akin Olunloyo:
1,238, level confidence: 61%.
Akin Olunloyo to win as he is currently playing
29% better than Chris Wren.
Akin Olunloyo won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Akin Olunloyo played
24% better than Chris Wren in this match.
In this case, Akin Olunloyo played at level 1,199 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Akin Olunloyo would normally have been playing at level 1,211 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Wren played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Akin Olunloyo changes to 0% and Chris Wren changes to +0.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Akin Olunloyo becomes 0% and for Chris Wren becomes +0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Akin Olunloyo is 0% and for Chris Wren is +0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Akin Olunloyo: 78%, Chris Wren: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Akin Olunloyo: 76%, Chris Wren: 59%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Wren:
961, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Akin Olunloyo:
1,236, level confidence: 76%.