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Duncan Green v Michael Herd (Tue 07 Aug 2012)

Match won by Michael Herd. Result: 15-17,10-15,9-15.

Starting level for Duncan Green: 1,279, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Michael Herd: 1,718, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Michael Herd to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Duncan Green.

Michael Herd won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Herd played 44% better than Duncan Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Herd actually played at a level of 1,777 and Duncan Green at a level of 1,236. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Herd changes to +1.9% and Duncan Green changes to -3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Herd becomes +1.5% and for Duncan Green becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Michael Herd is +1% and for Duncan Green is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Herd: 92%, Duncan Green: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Herd: 89%, Duncan Green: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Duncan Green: 1,255, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Michael Herd: 1,733, level confidence: 89%.