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Andy Homeyard v Marcus Gray (Wed 20 Oct 2010)

Match won by Andy Homeyard. Result: 15-7,10-15,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for Andy Homeyard: 1,215, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Marcus Gray: 696, level confidence: 35%.
Andy Homeyard to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Marcus Gray.

Andy Homeyard won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Homeyard played 26% better than Marcus Gray in this match.

As Andy Homeyard has played below his allowed range at 936, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Homeyard would normally have been playing at level 1,114 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Gray played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 9.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Homeyard changes to -3.4% and Marcus Gray changes to +9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Homeyard becomes -3% and for Marcus Gray becomes +6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Andy Homeyard is -2.2% and for Marcus Gray is +4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Homeyard: 71%, Marcus Gray: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Homeyard: 61%, Marcus Gray: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Homeyard: 1,187, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Marcus Gray: 727, level confidence: 50%.