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Alan Cook v Paul Vukovich (Wed 20 Oct 2010)

Match won by Paul Vukovich. Result: 7-15,4-15,15-13,13-15.

Starting level for Alan Cook: 1,446, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Paul Vukovich: 1,611, level confidence: 25%.
Paul Vukovich to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Alan Cook.

Paul Vukovich won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 49% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Vukovich played 33% better than Alan Cook in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Vukovich actually played at a level of 1,759 and Alan Cook at a level of 1,324. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Vukovich changes to +8.7% and Alan Cook changes to -4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Vukovich becomes +4.8% and for Alan Cook becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Vukovich is +3.6% and for Alan Cook is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Vukovich: 50%, Alan Cook: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Vukovich: 46%, Alan Cook: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Cook: 1,411, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Paul Vukovich: 1,666, level confidence: 46%.