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Carl Noffki v Neil Houson (Tue 07 Aug 2012)

Match won by Neil Houson. Result: 9-15,10-15,9-15.

Starting level for Carl Noffki: 1,099, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Neil Houson: 1,663, level confidence: 64%.
Neil Houson to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Carl Noffki.

Neil Houson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Houson played 61% better than Carl Noffki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Houson actually played at a level of 1,714 and Carl Noffki at a level of 1,066. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Houson changes to +2% and Carl Noffki changes to -2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Houson becomes +1.7% and for Carl Noffki becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Neil Houson is +1.1% and for Carl Noffki is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Houson: 80%, Carl Noffki: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Houson: 77%, Carl Noffki: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carl Noffki: 1,081, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Neil Houson: 1,678, level confidence: 77%.