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Kevin Hall v Mike Symmons (Wed 08 Aug 2012)

Match won by Kevin Hall. Result: 15-8,15-13,15-12.

Starting level for Kevin Hall: 1,589, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Mike Symmons: 1,370, level confidence: 63%.
Kevin Hall to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Mike Symmons.

Kevin Hall won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Hall played 43% better than Mike Symmons in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kevin Hall actually played at a level of 1,761 and Mike Symmons at a level of 1,236. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Hall changes to +10% and Mike Symmons changes to -7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Hall becomes +5.3% and for Mike Symmons becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Kevin Hall is +3.5% and for Mike Symmons is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Hall: 70%, Mike Symmons: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Hall: 63%, Mike Symmons: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kevin Hall: 1,642, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Mike Symmons: 1,328, level confidence: 72%.