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Matt McGill v Roger Greenfield (Wed 08 Aug 2012)

Match won by Matt McGill. Result: 15-7,15-6,12-15,15-6.

Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,527, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Roger Greenfield: 871, level confidence: 28%.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Roger Greenfield.

Matt McGill won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt McGill played 39% better than Roger Greenfield in this match.

As Matt McGill has played below his allowed range at 1,226, his level reduction is 1.2% before damping. On the assumption that Matt McGill would normally have been playing at level 1,398 (based on typical behaviour), Roger Greenfield played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 5.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt McGill changes to -0.5% and Roger Greenfield changes to +5.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt McGill becomes -0.4% and for Roger Greenfield becomes +4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Matt McGill is 0% and for Roger Greenfield is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt McGill: 75%, Roger Greenfield: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt McGill: 67%, Roger Greenfield: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt McGill: 1,521, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Roger Greenfield: 894, level confidence: 47%.