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Karl Fenwick v Jill Gaskell (Tue 02 Nov 2010)

Match won by Karl Fenwick. Result: 15-12,11-15,12-15,15-8,15-7.

Starting level for Karl Fenwick: 1,500, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jill Gaskell: 1,084, level confidence: 38%.
Karl Fenwick to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Jill Gaskell.

Karl Fenwick won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Fenwick played 12% better than Jill Gaskell in this match.

As Karl Fenwick has played below his allowed range at 1,302, his level reduction is 6.9% before damping. On the assumption that Karl Fenwick would normally have been playing at level 1,451 (based on typical behaviour), Jill Gaskell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 7.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Fenwick changes to -2.8% and Jill Gaskell changes to +7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Fenwick becomes -2.4% and for Jill Gaskell becomes +5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Karl Fenwick is -1.8% and for Jill Gaskell is +3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Fenwick: 87%, Jill Gaskell: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Fenwick: 78%, Jill Gaskell: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Fenwick: 1,471, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Jill Gaskell: 1,124, level confidence: 55%.