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Peter Learyjnr v James Armstrong (Tue 14 Aug 2012)

Match won by James Armstrong. Result: 14-16,15-13,9-15,11-15.

Starting level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,618, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for James Armstrong: 1,817, level confidence: 67%.
James Armstrong to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Peter Learyjnr.

James Armstrong won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Armstrong played 23% better than Peter Learyjnr in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Armstrong actually played at a level of 1,905 and Peter Learyjnr at a level of 1,543. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Armstrong changes to +4.2% and Peter Learyjnr changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Armstrong becomes +2.8% and for Peter Learyjnr becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for James Armstrong is +1.8% and for Peter Learyjnr is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Armstrong: 82%, Peter Learyjnr: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Armstrong: 78%, Peter Learyjnr: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Learyjnr: 1,583, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for James Armstrong: 1,848, level confidence: 78%.