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Neil Newbery v Keith Farnham (Tue 02 Nov 2010)

Match won by Keith Farnham. Result: 12-15,11-15,10-15.

Starting level for Neil Newbery: 1,834, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Keith Farnham: 1,585, level confidence: 63%.
Neil Newbery to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Keith Farnham.

Keith Farnham won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Farnham played 43% better than Neil Newbery in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Farnham actually played at a level of 2,035 and Neil Newbery at a level of 1,428. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Farnham changes to +26% and Neil Newbery changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Farnham becomes +11.4% and for Neil Newbery becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Keith Farnham is +8.5% and for Neil Newbery is -8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Neil Newbery is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Farnham: 79%, Neil Newbery: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Farnham: 62%, Neil Newbery: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Newbery: 1,744, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Keith Farnham: 1,718, level confidence: 62%.