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Jordan Ryan v Johnny McElligott (Tue 02 Nov 2010)

Match won by Jordan Ryan. Result: 15-5,15-4,15-9.

Starting level for Jordan Ryan: 590, level confidence: 22%.
Starting level for Johnny McElligott: 961, level confidence: 50%.
Johnny McElligott to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Jordan Ryan.

Jordan Ryan won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jordan Ryan played 150% better than Johnny McElligott in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jordan Ryan actually played at a level of 1,191 and Johnny McElligott at a level of 476. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 102% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 73% and 73% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan changes to +73% and Johnny McElligott changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan becomes +33.6% and for Johnny McElligott becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jordan Ryan is +25% and for Johnny McElligott is -9.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jordan Ryan is limited to +10% and Johnny McElligott is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jordan Ryan: 47%, Johnny McElligott: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jordan Ryan: 23%, Johnny McElligott: 35%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Ryan: 648, level confidence: 23%.
Final level for Johnny McElligott: 919, level confidence: 35%.