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Phil Power v Ray Evans (Tue 02 Nov 2010)

Match won by Phil Power. Result: 15-12,15-4,15-9.

Starting level for Phil Power: 1,305, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ray Evans: 924, level confidence: 59%.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Ray Evans.

Phil Power won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Power played 80% better than Ray Evans in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Power actually played at a level of 1,473 and Ray Evans at a level of 818. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 10.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Power changes to +7.7% and Ray Evans changes to -10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Power becomes +4.8% and for Ray Evans becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Phil Power is +3.6% and for Ray Evans is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Power: 90%, Ray Evans: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Power: 80%, Ray Evans: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Power: 1,350, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Ray Evans: 879, level confidence: 68%.