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Nick Cartwright v Stuart Kousoulou (Tue 02 Nov 2010)

Match won by Stuart Kousoulou. Result: 10-15,6-15,10-15.

Starting level for Nick Cartwright: 1,449, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Stuart Kousoulou: 1,593, level confidence: 59%.
Stuart Kousoulou to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Nick Cartwright.

Stuart Kousoulou won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Kousoulou played 73% better than Nick Cartwright in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Kousoulou actually played at a level of 1,999 and Nick Cartwright at a level of 1,155. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou changes to +24% and Nick Cartwright changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou becomes +10.8% and for Nick Cartwright becomes -9.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou is +8.1% and for Nick Cartwright is -7.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Cartwright is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Kousoulou: 77%, Nick Cartwright: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Kousoulou: 61%, Nick Cartwright: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Cartwright: 1,378, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Stuart Kousoulou: 1,719, level confidence: 61%.