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Nick Davis v Patrick Stewart (Wed 15 Aug 2012)

Match won by Nick Davis. Result: 15-12,15-8,15-13.

Starting level for Nick Davis: 1,658, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Stewart: 1,215, level confidence: 34%.
Nick Davis to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Patrick Stewart.

Nick Davis won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Davis played 43% better than Patrick Stewart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Davis actually played at a level of 1,694 and Patrick Stewart at a level of 1,189. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Davis changes to +0.8% and Patrick Stewart changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Davis becomes +0.6% and for Patrick Stewart becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Nick Davis is +0.4% and for Patrick Stewart is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Davis: 92%, Patrick Stewart: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Davis: 90%, Patrick Stewart: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Davis: 1,662, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Patrick Stewart: 1,200, level confidence: 57%.