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Martin White v Martin Berry (Wed 03 Nov 2010)

Match won by Martin White. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-8.

Starting level for Martin White: 2,115, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Martin Berry: 2,101, level confidence: 66%.
Martin White to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Martin Berry.

Martin White won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin White played 40% better than Martin Berry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin White actually played at a level of 2,493 and Martin Berry at a level of 1,783. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin White changes to +18% and Martin Berry changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin White becomes +7.6% and for Martin Berry becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Martin White is +5.7% and for Martin Berry is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin White: 69%, Martin Berry: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin White: 58%, Martin Berry: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin White: 2,232, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Martin Berry: 2,056, level confidence: 69%.