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Alistair Coker v Eamonn Price (Thu 16 Aug 2012)

Match won by Alistair Coker. Result: 15-11,15-12,15-13.

Starting level for Alistair Coker: 4,276, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Eamonn Price: 6,364, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Eamonn Price to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Alistair Coker.

Alistair Coker won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alistair Coker played 35% better than Eamonn Price in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alistair Coker actually played at a level of 6,059 and Eamonn Price at a level of 4,491. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 33% and 33% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alistair Coker changes to +33% and Eamonn Price changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alistair Coker becomes +10.1% and for Eamonn Price becomes -5.9%.

Given Eamonn Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Alistair Coker is +6.6% and for Eamonn Price is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alistair Coker: 67%, Eamonn Price: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alistair Coker: 48%, Eamonn Price: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alistair Coker: 4,551, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Eamonn Price: 6,147, level confidence: 59%.