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Ian Taylor v Stuart Wylie (Wed 03 Nov 2010)

Match won by Stuart Wylie. Result: 15-17,13-15,15-12,15-11,14-16.

Starting level for Ian Taylor: 971, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for Stuart Wylie: 1,160, level confidence: 15%.
Stuart Wylie to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Ian Taylor.

Stuart Wylie won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 1% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Wylie played 7% better than Ian Taylor in this match.

As Stuart Wylie has played below his allowed range at 1,087, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Stuart Wylie would normally have been playing at level 1,149 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Wylie changes to -4.1% and Ian Taylor changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Wylie becomes -3.4% and for Ian Taylor becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Stuart Wylie is -2.5% and for Ian Taylor is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Wylie: 39%, Ian Taylor: 51%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Wylie: 37%, Ian Taylor: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Taylor: 989, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Stuart Wylie: 1,130, level confidence: 37%.