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Jed Whelan v Nick Medcraft (Wed 03 Nov 2010)

Match won by Jed Whelan. Result: 15-10,15-10,15-10.

Starting level for Jed Whelan: 1,797, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Nick Medcraft: 1,361, level confidence: 41%.
Jed Whelan to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Nick Medcraft.

Jed Whelan won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jed Whelan played 52% better than Nick Medcraft in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jed Whelan actually played at a level of 1,926 and Nick Medcraft at a level of 1,270. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.2% and 6.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jed Whelan changes to +3.8% and Nick Medcraft changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jed Whelan becomes +2.7% and for Nick Medcraft becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jed Whelan is +2% and for Nick Medcraft is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jed Whelan: 82%, Nick Medcraft: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jed Whelan: 77%, Nick Medcraft: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jed Whelan: 1,831, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Nick Medcraft: 1,319, level confidence: 60%.