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Nick Newson v Ian Taylor (Tue 21 Aug 2012)

Match won by Ian Taylor. Result: 13-15,9-15,13-15.

Starting level for Nick Newson: 1,039, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,232, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ian Taylor to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Nick Newson.

Ian Taylor won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Taylor played 37% better than Nick Newson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Taylor actually played at a level of 1,326 and Nick Newson at a level of 966. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Taylor changes to +6.4% and Nick Newson changes to -7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Taylor becomes +4.3% and for Nick Newson becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Ian Taylor is +2.8% and for Nick Newson is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Taylor: 88%, Nick Newson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Taylor: 82%, Nick Newson: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Newson: 1,006, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,265, level confidence: 82%.