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Phil Power v Duncan Hill (Tue 21 Aug 2012)

Match won by Phil Power. Result: 15-9,15-13,16-14.

Starting level for Phil Power: 2,232, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Duncan Hill: 1,308, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Duncan Hill.

Phil Power won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Power played 37% better than Duncan Hill in this match.

As Phil Power has played below his allowed range at 1,818, his level reduction is 1.6% before damping. On the assumption that Phil Power would normally have been playing at level 2,059 (based on typical behaviour), Duncan Hill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Power changes to -1.1% and Duncan Hill changes to +5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Power becomes -0.8% and for Duncan Hill becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Phil Power is -0.6% and for Duncan Hill is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Power: 87%, Duncan Hill: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Power: 78%, Duncan Hill: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Power: 2,216, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Duncan Hill: 1,338, level confidence: 75%.