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Mark Shattock v Marcus Jackson (Thu 04 Nov 2010)

Match won by Mark Shattock. Result: 16-18,15-7,15-6,16-14.

Starting level for Mark Shattock: 1,824, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Jackson: 1,505, level confidence: 10%.
Mark Shattock to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Marcus Jackson.

Mark Shattock won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Shattock played 29% better than Marcus Jackson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Shattock actually played at a level of 1,883 and Marcus Jackson at a level of 1,458. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Shattock changes to +0.3% and Marcus Jackson changes to -3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Shattock becomes +0.3% and for Marcus Jackson becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Mark Shattock is 0% and for Marcus Jackson is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Shattock: 92%, Marcus Jackson: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Shattock: 89%, Marcus Jackson: 31%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Shattock: 1,825, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Marcus Jackson: 1,475, level confidence: 31%.